ETS2 and Your Gas Bill in Holland

If you still heat your home with natural gas, a new European emissions trading system – ETS2 – is about to make that choice more expensive. From 2027, energy suppliers will have to pay for the CO₂ emissions from the fossil fuels they deliver. And those costs will almost certainly be passed on to you.

According to new research by Independer, the gas price could rise by as much as 27 cents per cubic metre from 2028 onwards. For an average household burning 1,000 m³ of gas per year, that adds up to an extra €270 annually. Even in a lower scenario, you are still looking at €100 more per year.

ETS2 covers fossil fuels used in buildings and road transport. It is designed to make polluting energy progressively less attractive, while cleaner alternatives like heat pumps and district heating become relatively cheaper. The message is clear: electrification is no longer just a climate goal – it is becoming an economic necessity.

Three things you need to know

• Timeline – Suppliers start paying in 2027. The full system becomes operational in 2028. Expect gas prices to climb gradually between those years.

• Social cushion – Part of the ETS2 revenues will flow into a Social Climate Fund. EU member states can use it to support energy efficiency, cleaner heating, and temporary income support for vulnerable households. However, the scale and speed of that support remain uncertain.

• Worse for leaky homes – Poorly insulated houses will feel the biggest sting. Without first improving insulation and upgrading heat distribution systems, a heat pump simply cannot work efficiently. ETS2 risks hitting low-income households hardest if targeted support is not delivered in time.

What you can do now

For well-insulated homes, the business case for a heat pump just got stronger. For draughty ones, start with draught sealing, loft insulation, or cavity wall insulation – and talk to an installer about your long-term heating plan. Installers and housing associations should already include ETS2 forecasts in their living cost calculations.

Independer notes that many energy suppliers are not yet communicating these upcoming price hikes clearly, especially for multi-year contracts. That means staying informed is your best defence.

ETS2 is coming. Whether it becomes a manageable transition or a financial shock depends on the choices you make today.